Ready or not, the FCC has set February 17, 2009 as the deadline for all major broadcast television stations to decommission their analog transmitters and finalize their conversion to the new digital standard.  Most people get their television programming via cable, satellite, or fiber optic sources rather than over-the-air (OTA), so most people will be unaffected when the analog transmitters go dark next year.  However, according to FCC estimates, about 14% of all U.S. households rely on OTA broadcasts as their only source of programming.  For these consumers, this change means everything.  If they do not upgrade their equipment to receive digital broadcasts, they may be left with little or nothing to watch after next year.

This country has enjoyed free broadcast television for so long that many people feel like free TV is just a way of life.  Some even feel as if they've been slighted by the government because their current television equipment is being forced into obsolescence.  While there's nothing surprising about newer technologies superseding older technologies, analog TV seems to have a special place in our hearts because it has remained with us virtually unchanged for more than 50 years.  With a change as extensive and swift as the upcoming analog shutdown, there are bound to be some frustrated consumers out there either because they have not been properly informed of their options or because they are unable/unwilling to spend the money to upgrade.

To make matters worse, some early adopters have been reporting a reduction in the total number of digital channels available to them when compared to their previous analog line-up.  For those already reluctant to make the switch, this seems to add insult to injury because now they must also face the possiblity of receiving fewer channels than before.  This is not the outcome one would expect because the FCC, broadcasters, and the consumer electronics industry have worked hard to make sure the new digital network is on par with the old analog network.  However, with a change of this magnitude, it's possible that certain areas have been overlooked in the new plan.  The question is, do these coverage reductions represent a few isolated cases or is this indicative of a more widespread phenomenon.

With the propagation modeling and coverage analysis tools available at TV Fool, we thought it would be interesting to take a peek into the future and see just how good or bad things will get after the transition.  Since the FCC has already announced the final DTV plans for most of the major broadcasters, we can take a closer look at what the OTA environment looks like today and compare it with how things might look after the transition deadline.  Are people really losing channels?  We hope our anaysis will shed some light on the issue and also reveal some interesting facts about how OTA television is going to change approximately one year from now.